Navigating the U.S.–Finland Relationship After President Trump’s 2024 Victory: Implications for Finnish Businesses

Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory has once again shifted the dynamics of U.S. politics, with broad implications for global trade. The United States is Finland’s largest trading partner outside the EU, with exports to the U.S. totaling USD 9 billion in 2023, accounting for 11% of Finland’s total exports. For Finland, Trump’s return to office presents a range of challenges, especially for sectors heavily reliant on U.S. demand. As an export-driven economy, Finland will need to consider strategic adjustments to continue thriving in this evolving political landscape.

From an American viewpoint, issues like inflation and rising consumer costs were central to this election. While Kamala Harris might have seemed a more reasonable choice to Finns, American voters were largely focused on domestic concerns – particularly the cost of living. With everyday essentials like shampoo, toothpaste, and food seeing steep price increases, many Americans held the Biden administration accountable, resulting in a shift back to Trump. In Middle America, issues like foreign policy in Gaza or Ukraine, and even global warming, take a back seat to pocketbook concerns.

These sentiments have significant ramifications for international players, particularly as the new administration pivots toward policies that prioritize American industrialism and protectionism. These are not new strategies for President Trump, but they will likely return with renewed vigor under his administration.

Trump’s election win has sparked an immediate positive reaction in the stock market, with investors rallying around expectations of business-friendly policies, tax cuts, and regulatory rollbacks aimed at stimulating economic growth. This initial optimism reflects hopes for a more favorable environment for corporate expansion and profitability. However, even Elon Musk, a vocal Trump supporter, has tempered these expectations by cautioning that Trump’s policies may cause short-term economic hardship in the U.S. Musk has suggested that while these measures could initially lead to severe economic strains, particularly as protectionist tariffs and reshoring initiatives take effect, they are ultimately designed to fuel long-term growth and self-sufficiency. Musk’s perspective underscores the need for resilience and adaptability in a period of economic adjustment, as companies prepare for both short-term challenges and the potential for longer-term opportunities.

As the United States considers imposing tariffs on European goods, alongside current tariffs on Chinese imports, Finnish exporters face a complex landscape. Finnish industries – especially those tied to steel, paper, machinery, and technology – could encounter higher barriers to entry into the U.S. market. Finland’s sector has long benefitted from the open trade policies between the EU and U.S., but now, adapting to a tariff-heavy environment may become imperative for survival.

Consequently, Finnish companies might find that establishing industrial operations to the U.S. is the most effective way to maintain access to this crucial market. Establishing production facilities within the U.S. would allow Finnish firms to bypass tariffs and remain competitive in a potentially more restrictive trade environment. Though this strategy may come with high initial costs, it could prove essential for Finnish businesses aiming to secure long-term viability in the American market.

In light of these evolving challenges, Finnish companies may need to make proactive adjustments. Here are a few potential strategies:

Finnish businesses are no strangers to navigating in complex international trade landscapes. The upcoming years may require Finland’s business community to leverage its resilience and adaptability, particularly as they explore industrial opportunities in the U.S. to remain competitive. While these times bring challenges, they also offer opportunities for Finnish companies to deepen their ties within the U.S. market and continue their history of innovation and global engagement.